I stood up a separate photography site here! I'll add more stuff to it in the upcoming weeks.
This was a lovely tool for making it: https://github.com/Jack000/Expose
I stood up a separate photography site here! I'll add more stuff to it in the upcoming weeks.
This was a lovely tool for making it: https://github.com/Jack000/Expose
Let's for a moment think of two competing hypotheses for how recessions might happen over time, which we'll call Universe A and Universe B.
In Universe A, recessions are independent, random events. Every year, there's a 10% chance that one will happen. If you've made it five years without one, your conditional probability of having a recession is no different than if you made it two years without one, or ten. In Universe A it's not about the length of the recovery, recessions happen because of other unrelated factors -- a housing bubble, inflation, etc. Expressing this in code, let's represent this like a coin flip each year; heads for growth, tails for recession
To simulate, we flip this coin many times and see how long the economy maintains runs of growth:
A histogram of n=10,000 simulated growth period looks like this:
Universe B has recessions from business cycle theory that you hear about in a macroeconomics class. They are, cyclical, or time-correlated. Growth periods are like tidal waves; they rise fourth and crash of their own volition.
In Universe B we modify our simulation to incorporate a time parameter:
The larger the time t from the last recession, the less likely you are to have a growth year. And to simulate
Here's the corresponding ten-thousand-trial distribution of this process:
As an aside, the intent of this thought experiment is to develop a mental picture of what these phenomenon might look like. We've set this problem up in a discrete fashion like coin flips. Universe A is a geometric random variable, but the continuous analogue is whether or not recessions do or do not look like an exponential distribution, which is often used to represent times between events, and is a memoryless processes.
With this framework in mind, let's consider some real data. Here is some recession data from the St. Louis Fed tagging month-by-month if the US economy is in a recession. One important question is how far back can we look to think about recessions today. Does a recession in the 1850's relate to a possible one in 2018? Here's a plot of a three year moving average of if the US Economy was in a recession or not, for as long as the Fed has published data on this:
I feel fine splitting this up at the Great Depression (the author did at World War II but I see no reason to omit the decade or so in between). Binning this by the "runs" of economic growth in the economy by number of months, we get a histogram like this:
To my eye, this recession histogram looks more like the time-dependent scenario. But let's suppose it wasn't. Proceeding with Universe A hypothesis, the best fit exponential distribution has a probability plot like this:
It's not a good fit (a Gamma distribution is a lot closer), and any nonparametric test would support the notion that this data is not generated from an exponential process. And that's my problem, here. Universe B to me seems like a more plausible hypothesis to me given the recessions we've observed for the last ninety or so years. The author made different considerations, I'm sure, but the underlying mechanics don't seem great to me.
There's a lot more to consider, obviously, but I think this is an interesting question. Please let me know what you think!
Even as a judicious password manager user, I'm really good at losing them! Some password generating tools keep a log of some of the recent passwords they've created, and I find this quite useful. So I made a little command line tool that makes me passwords and keeps an encrypted log of past invocations. Here it is.
Transcribed from my grandma's recipe card.
Bring sugar, butter, and milk to a boil, and boil for 7 or 8 minutes. Stir constantly. Remove from stove and add 2 packages of chocolate chips and 1 pt of marshmallow cream, pinch of salt, mixing together. Pour in baking dish to cool.
I've been running Debian 9 on my laptop for the past few days and it works great! This was my first time booting Linux onto a laptop and it was not too bad. I definitely made some first-time mistakes, but after getting set up the machine has been stable and smooth.
Here are some personal notes on my experience and things I wish I knew before starting.
I'm taking a break from Twitter, a place I love (!), but am finding too easy to obsess over. I have like five legitimate followers so this shouldn't be a big deal, but it feels like one. Maybe I'll come back later.
If you want to reach out to me online, you can send me a note on Keybase!
My girlfriend and I make this easy recipe for pico de gallo and it is really good. From Richard Sandoval's New Latin Flavors:
Combine all of the ingredients in a medium bowl. Cover them with plastic wrap and refrigerate to chill and blend the flavors, at least 1 and up to 8 hours.
I made a little command line tool for saving passwords: https://github.com/kingishb/kb. It uses keybase to handle all the encryption.
There's random cases where I have to type in passwords into a terminal (vpns, git repos with ssh disabled, etc.). This is simple and just stores the ciphertext in a keybase folder, and reads it out of there. I at first looked at a few more polished tools like pass, but I really don't like using GPG unless I need to. It's not hard to add password sharing from here, if there's ever a need.
Feel free to try it out, make a PR, etc! Maybe someone else will find it useful.